Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 23?

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Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 23 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily temperature data through its Climate Information Services portal, with the "Absolute Daily Max" figure serving as the official settlement source once finalised in the Daily Extract records.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range between 28°C and 33°C, with historical data showing considerable consistency across years. The territory experiences subtropical conditions during late May, situated between spring and the onset of the southwest monsoon season. Reviewing the Observatory's historical records reveals that extreme highs above 35°C in May are rare but not unprecedented, occurring roughly once per decade during particularly warm years. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting the market to open for substantive trading activity or reflecting genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather patterns as May 2026 approaches, particularly any forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in the weeks preceding the settlement date. The Observatory typically issues extended outlooks that can signal whether conditions are tracking towards warmer or cooler than average. Real-time temperature data becomes increasingly reliable within ten days of the target date, allowing traders to refine positions as actual May weather develops. The settlement window closes at midday on 23 May, requiring final data confirmation before resolution can occur.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 23? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.