Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature reached on 25 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data is finalised, typically within days of the measurement date.

May in Hong Kong sits within late spring, when temperatures typically range between 28–32°C, though extremes occasionally exceed 34°C. Historical records show that daily maxima in late May have reached 35°C or higher during particularly warm years, whilst cooler days remain uncommon at this time of year. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting the settlement window to close or treating this as a placeholder market pending actual temperature data. Since the resolution depends entirely on meteorological measurement rather than human decision-making, the probability reflects only uncertainty about future weather conditions, not about how the Observatory will report its findings.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and broader East Asian weather patterns as May 2026 approaches. The market cannot resolve until official data is published and finalised by the Observatory. Any significant weather systems—tropical cyclones, monsoon shifts, or heat waves affecting the region—would influence the eventual temperature reading. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 May 2026, after which resolution depends on how quickly the Observatory publishes its Daily Extract data for that date.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.