Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Istanbul Airport on 25 May 2026, with settlement based on NOAA data converted to Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, requiring finalised hourly readings across the full calendar day.

Istanbul's May temperatures typically range between 20°C and 28°C, with historical highs occasionally reaching the low 30s during heat waves. The city's Mediterranean climate produces variable spring conditions; May averages sit around 24–26°C, though anomalous warming events have pushed daily maxima to 32–34°C in recent decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in moderate conditions or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Comparable May markets in Mediterranean locations have resolved across a wide band, reflecting the genuine uncertainty inherent in single-day temperature forecasting fourteen months ahead.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts released by meteorological services in spring 2026, particularly any signals of high-pressure systems or heat advection from North Africa. NOAA's extended-range outlooks, typically issued monthly, will provide the most reliable guidance on whether May 2026 tracks toward above-normal or below-normal temperatures for the region. The specific resolution mechanism—requiring NOAA's Istanbul Airport station data rather than city-centre observations—means local microclimatic factors at the airport site will determine outcomes. Traders should verify the exact station location and its historical temperature variance before committing capital.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.