Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25?

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Market context

Mexico City's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Benito Juárez International Airport and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle for the measurement station.

Mexico City's elevation of 2,250 metres moderates temperatures year-round compared to lower-altitude Mexican cities. May typically sees highs between 26–28°C at the airport station, with occasional peaks reaching 29–30°C during particularly warm years. Historical data from the past two decades shows May 25 specifically has recorded highs ranging from 24°C to 29°C, with most years clustering around 26–27°C. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cold day or uncertainty about which temperature bracket the market offers as settlement options.

Traders should monitor late-May weather patterns from mid-May onwards, as the onset of Mexico's rainy season typically begins in late May and can suppress afternoon temperatures through cloud cover and convective activity. The National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional) publishes extended forecasts approximately ten days in advance. Anomalous heat events in central Mexico during May remain possible but are less common than in March or April, when pre-monsoon heating peaks. The specific resolution mechanism—using Wunderground's historical data for the airport station rather than city-centre measurements—anchors outcomes to a consistent, well-documented source.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.