Highest temperature in Munich on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich is starting the day cool, with Weather Underground showing 63°F at 4:00 am and AccuWeather putting the morning around 62°F, which leaves plenty of room for warming before the airport station’s daily maximum is set. The market is therefore really about whether the day reaches the mid-to-high 20s Celsius, not whether it feels mild at dawn.[1][3]

On the historical side, Munich’s August climate usually tops out near the mid-20s Celsius, with one weather-history source giving an August average high of 24°C and another listing 10 August as typically around 25.3°C. Extremes are possible but not common: Munich’s all-time August record is 37.0°C, while 10 August 2003 saw a daily low as high as 22.0°C, which shows how hot spells can briefly push the distribution well above normal.[2][6] Against that backdrop, a 1% implied probability for the highest-temperature range suggests the market is leaning hard against a major heat surge.

The main catalyst is the short-range forecast and any shift in cloud cover, rainfall risk, or warmer continental air over southern Germany, which would show up first in the high-temperature forecast before it appears in the Weather Underground daily observations table used for settlement. AccuWeather’s 10-day view currently points to roughly 91°F/33°C for the day, so traders will be watching whether that forecast holds, eases, or is trimmed as the day develops.[17][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Munich on August 10? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.