Highest temperature in NYC on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market settles on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 19 August 2026, using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table as the authoritative source rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning final readings must be logged before the market locks.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia show considerable variability. Between 2010 and 2024, daily highs on 19 August ranged from 74°F to 89°F, with a median around 82°F. The station has recorded temperatures exceeding 90°F on roughly one in four occasions during mid-August across that period. Extreme heat events—defined as sustained temperatures above 95°F—occur infrequently but have been documented in New York City during late summer, most recently in August 2022 when the region experienced a heat dome. The current 0% implied probability suggests the market is pricing in either a narrow temperature band or reflects early-stage liquidity constraints rather than meteorological consensus.

Traders should monitor long-range forecasts from the National Weather Service beginning in late July 2026, which typically offer reliable guidance for early-to-mid August conditions. Atlantic hurricane activity and jet stream positioning in early August will influence whether high-pressure systems dominate the Northeast, driving temperatures upward, or whether cooler maritime air masses prevail. The specific resolution methodology—relying on Weather Underground's Daily Observations rather than official National Weather Service records—creates a dependency on that platform's data accuracy and availability on the settlement date.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on August 19? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.