Highest temperature in NYC on August 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia’s latest climate report for 25 August showed a maximum of 79°F recorded at 2:58 pm, with the day still well within late-summer norms rather than an extreme heat setup. NOAA’s hourly and daily data also place the day’s range close to the August average for New York, which helps explain why a market sitting at 0% for a higher band is leaning heavily on the absence of an additional late-afternoon spike.

Comparable late-August cases usually resolve in the high-70s to low-80s unless a strong ridge or humidity surge pushes temperatures towards the upper 80s or 90s. In practical terms, the market is reading this as a “no surprise heat” outcome unless the final hourly observations at KLGA show a sharper rise than the midday profile suggested.

The main catalyst to watch is the NOAA hourly table for LaGuardia, since settlement turns on the highest “Temp” entry for the day rather than citywide readings or broader New York forecasts. For context, recent NWS guidance had KLGA around 68°F in the morning with modest winds and partly cloudy conditions, while AccuWeather’s August outlook for New York had daily highs mostly in the mid-70s to mid-80s, a range that leaves little room for an outlier unless the site warms decisively later in the day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on August 25? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.