Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 1 July 2026, which will determine the outcome of this prediction market. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the "YES" side, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall within a specific lower range, though historical data indicates July in New York often sees highs between 81°F and 99°F[2].

Historical precedents frame this probability as unusually cautious. The all-time record for LaGuardia is 107°F, recorded on 3 July 1966, while the maximum for 1 July specifically reached 100°F in 2021[3][5]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 show daily highs ranging from 81°F to 99°F, with current conditions at LaGuardia hovering around 91°F and heat indices reaching 99°F[1][2]. The 0% probability implies a belief that the temperature will not exceed a particular threshold, yet comparable years suggest such extremes are plausible.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather announcements and scheduled heatwave declarations, as these act as primary catalysts for temperature spikes. A live heatwave was already reported at nearby JFK Airport on 1 July 2026, indicating regional thermal pressure[8]. The market leans heavily on Wunderground data for resolution, so any discrepancies between forecast models and actual readings at LaGuardia will drive price movements. Recent campaign-finance disclosures or political declarations regarding climate adaptation could also influence sentiment, though the immediate weather data remains the dominant factor.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on July 1? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.