Highest temperature in NYC on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s late-July temperature set-up is defined by the summer background state rather than by any one headline event: LaGuardia’s typical July high is around 84°F, with daily highs rarely below 75°F or above 92°F.[2] That makes the market’s current 0% YES reading look anchored to an expectation that 22 July will finish outside the upper end of the usual summer range, which is a low-probability outcome unless a discrete heat pulse develops. The broader comparison is straightforward: in a normal New York July, the distribution clusters in the low-to-mid 80s, so a very high reading would need an identifiable catalyst rather than just seasonal warmth.[2][3]

The key trader watchpoint is the evolving forecast into the event date, especially any renewed ridge or heat-advisory setup over the Northeast. Polymarket’s event page says recent National Weather Service and ensemble guidance had pointed to moderating conditions after the mid-July heatwave, with NYC maximums on 22 July most likely in the 83–87°F range.[1] That is the catalyst the market is leaning on: if the forecast remains in that band, the settlement range should cluster around the mid-80s; if a hotter-than-expected pattern returns, the tail risk shifts quickly towards the upper 80s or low 90s. The July 2026 heat wave already showed how quickly East Coast temperatures can overshoot, with reporting noting that records were broken across a wide corridor during the holiday weekend.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on July 22? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.