Highest temperature in NYC on May 24?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 May 2026 will determine which range this market settles into, with resolution based on historical weather data logged by Weather Underground. New York City's late May climate typically produces highs in the mid-to-upper 70s Fahrenheit, though variability is substantial depending on whether Atlantic weather systems or continental air masses dominate the region during that specific week.

Historical records from LaGuardia show May 24th temperatures have ranged from lows near 60°F in cooler years to peaks exceeding 85°F during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasting data or treating this as a calibration exercise given the settlement window extends to mid-2026. May weather in the Northeast remains inherently uncertain at this distance; spring patterns can shift dramatically based on jet stream positioning and whether tropical systems begin influencing Atlantic conditions earlier than climatologically typical.

Traders monitoring this market should track National Weather Service seasonal outlooks released quarterly, which typically begin refining May 2026 expectations by late 2025. The specific resolution mechanism—using LaGuardia's official station rather than Central Park or other NYC locations—matters substantially, as airport microclimates can differ by several degrees from urban centres. Recent NOAA guidance on Atlantic hurricane season intensity and spring warming trends will inform whether late May 2026 leans toward cooler or warmer extremes, though such forecasts remain provisional beyond the 14-day window.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on May 24? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.