Highest temperature in Paris on May 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 23 May 2026, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the resolution mechanism or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a genuine forecast event.

Paris's May temperatures typically range between 12°C and 22°C, though extremes have reached 28–29°C during heatwaves. The 23 May date falls within late spring, when Atlantic weather systems dominate European conditions. Historical records from Le Bourget show May highs cluster around 20–23°C in normal years, with outlier days exceeding 25°C occurring roughly once per decade. The current crowd position reflects either scepticism about extreme heat materialising or difficulty pricing a weather outcome nearly two years forward without seasonal forecasting models.

Traders should monitor European weather pattern forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly Atlantic blocking patterns that drive continental heat. The Copernicus Climate Change Service and Météo-France seasonal outlooks will provide relevant context in early 2026. Proximity to late spring means the market depends heavily on short-range meteorological conditions rather than long-term climate trends. Resolution hinges entirely on Wunderground's historical data availability for that specific station and date; any data gaps or station maintenance issues could affect settlement clarity.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Paris on May 23? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.