Highest temperature in Paris on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently shows 0% probability assigned to any outcome, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will materialise on that specific date. Settlement depends on historical weather data from Wunderground, making the resolution mechanically straightforward once the day passes.

Paris experiences considerable seasonal variation in late May. Historical records from Le Bourget show that temperatures in the final week of May typically range between 18°C and 26°C, with occasional excursions into the high 20s during warm years. The 2003 European heat wave saw May temperatures spike significantly above normal, whilst cooler springs have produced readings in the low-to-mid teens. The current 0% probability reflects the market's nascent state rather than any consensus forecast, as no single temperature band has yet attracted meaningful trading volume.

Weather forecasting accuracy degrades substantially beyond ten days, making early May 2026 predictions unreliable. Traders monitoring this market should note that late-May Paris temperatures correlate with broader European atmospheric patterns—particularly Atlantic high-pressure systems and jet-stream positioning. The UK Met Office and Météo-France will publish seasonal outlooks in spring 2026 that may shift trader expectations. Until such forecasts materialise and trading activity concentrates around plausible ranges, the market will likely remain thinly populated.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Paris on May 25? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.