Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport will record its highest temperature on 24 May 2026, with traders currently assigning zero probability to any outcome materialising. This reflects the substantial uncertainty inherent in forecasting a specific day's peak temperature nearly eighteen months in advance, where meteorological conditions remain unknowable and seasonal patterns provide only broad guidance.

Seattle's late-May climate typically produces highs between 65°F and 75°F, though the range can extend considerably. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that temperatures exceeding 80°F occur roughly once every five to seven years during this period, whilst readings below 60°F are similarly infrequent. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution data or treating the market as insufficiently liquid to price meaningfully. Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms show similar patterns: distant-future temperature outcomes attract minimal trading activity until the settlement window approaches within two to four weeks.

The primary catalyst for market movement will be the approach of May 2026 itself, when meteorological forecasts become actionable. The National Weather Service typically issues reliable five-to-ten day forecasts approximately one week before the settlement date. Traders should monitor whether any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as early heat waves or unseasonable cold fronts—develop in the Pacific Northwest during late spring 2026. Until then, the market's zero probability reflects rational disengagement rather than conviction about the underlying temperature outcome.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.