Highest temperature in Seoul on May 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul is in a warm late-spring spell, but the settlement point is based on the highest reading at Incheon International Airport by 12:00 UTC, which is early evening local time and captures only part of the day. Seasonal averages for Seoul in late May put daytime highs in the low 20s Celsius, with the month generally warming through the final week, but airport readings can run a little cooler than central Seoul because of sea influence and exposure. Recent historical weather in the region has shown a wide daily range this month, with mid-May highs reaching the upper 20s Celsius at times and lows still dropping into the single digits Celsius on some mornings.

For traders, the key question is whether the day’s maximum is set before the settlement cut-off or later in the local afternoon. WeatherSpark’s climate data show May 22 sits just before the point where Seoul typically shifts into its hotter season, which starts around 25 May, so a low- to mid-20s Celsius outcome is more consistent with climatology than an outright heat spike. The crowd’s 0% YES pricing suggests no expectation of a very high bracket, and the main catalyst remains the actual hourly progression at Incheon rather than any political-style scheduled event. The practical watch item is the Wunderground history page for RKSI as readings finalise; that source determines the resolved maximum once the day’s data are complete.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on May 22? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.