Highest temperature in Seoul on May 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 23 May 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical temperature ranges for that date. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the final reading must be confirmed by Weather Underground's historical database before resolution occurs.

Seoul's May temperatures typically range between 20–28°C, though the city has recorded highs exceeding 30°C during late-spring heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which specific temperature band will occur or have not yet engaged with this market. Historical data from Incheon Airport shows considerable year-to-year variation for late May; 2018 saw a high of 31.2°C on 23 May, whilst 2019 recorded 22.4°C for the same date. This volatility reflects the transitional nature of late spring in Korea, where warm continental air masses can clash with cooler maritime influences.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts released in the weeks preceding 23 May 2026, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models tracking North Pacific pressure systems. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 could influence seasonal temperature patterns across East Asia. Real-time forecast updates from Weather Underground itself will become increasingly reliable within 7–10 days of the resolution date. The specific temperature band thresholds offered in this market will determine which outcomes attract trading activity; wider bands typically see more distributed probability mass than narrow ones.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on May 23? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.