Highest temperature in Seoul on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 25 May 2026, with settlement occurring at midday on that date. The resolution uses historical weather data from Weather Underground, which archives daily temperature records for Seoul's primary weather station.

Seoul's late May climate typically ranges between 20–28°C, with occasional peaks above 30°C during early heat waves. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that temperatures exceeding 32°C on 25 May occur roughly once per decade, whilst readings below 15°C are exceptionally rare at this point in the calendar year. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extremely high or extremely low temperature thresholds, or that the market has attracted minimal participation ahead of the settlement window. Comparable May 25th records from prior years provide the most direct reference point for calibrating expectations around seasonal norms versus outlier conditions.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts released in April 2026, which typically project temperature patterns for late May with reasonable accuracy. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during early 2026 could shift Seoul's late-spring temperatures meaningfully above or below historical averages. Real-time weather forecasts from late May will offer the most precise guidance, though these become reliable only within 7–10 days of the settlement date. The specific temperature range bins offered in this market will determine which outcomes attract trading activity.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on May 25? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.