Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle for that date. Current crowd pricing at 0% YES suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will resolve, or the market structure itself requires clarification on available outcome ranges.

Seoul's late May climate typically ranges between 20–28°C, with occasional peaks above 30°C during early heat waves. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that temperatures exceeding 25°C occur in roughly 70% of years by late May, whilst readings above 30°C remain less common but not exceptional. The 0% probability reading likely reflects ambiguity about specific outcome brackets rather than a genuine forecast that temperatures will fall outside normal seasonal bounds.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's ten-day forecasts released in early May 2026, which typically provide reliable guidance for late-month conditions. Atmospheric patterns affecting Northeast Asia—particularly the position of the Pacific high-pressure system and any early monsoon activity—will determine whether Seoul experiences typical spring warmth or an anomalous cold spell. Real-time weather updates from Wunderground's historical records will be the authoritative settlement source, making the platform's data availability and recording methodology critical to resolution.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.