Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s temperature reading on 10 August will be decided by what the station logs in the Weather Underground **Daily Observations** table for Shanghai Pudong International Airport, not by the headline day-high summary. That matters because the market is effectively a one-day heat-range call on a coastal city where late-summer weather can swing quickly with showers, cloud cover, and typhoon-related moisture. Weather Underground’s Shanghai history page also shows the station-level structure that this market will use for settlement, and the current crowd price of 0% YES implies traders are leaning towards a band well below any clearly exceptional hot-day outcome.[6][15]

The historical frame is straightforward: Shanghai’s August climate is usually hot, humid, and often wet, with monthly averages around the low 30s Celsius on major weather datasets, while recent past August 10 readings have frequently landed in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius rather than at the very top of the scale.[8][14] Comparable late-summer histories from weather archives also show that individual Shanghai days can spike into the mid-to-upper 30s Celsius, but those hotter prints are less typical than the broader humid-heat baseline.[9][12] That makes the market less about whether it is warm — it usually is — and more about whether the day breaks into an unusually hot upper bracket.

The main catalyst to watch is the short-range forecast and any shift in rain or storm timing, because those are the variables most likely to cap the maximum temperature at the airport station. Timeanddate’s Shanghai forecast points to heavy rain, overcast conditions, and very high precipitation odds, which would normally argue for a lower peak than a dry, sunny day.[13] Traders should therefore lean on the latest station forecast updates, not just the calendar date, because the settlement depends on the day’s actual hourly observations and any cloud-rain changes that arrive before the afternoon heating window.[6][13]

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Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

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