Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai’s temperature for 22 May will be set by the highest reading at Pudong International Airport, with the market resolved from the Wunderground history page once the day is finalised. Late May is normally a warm spring-to-early-summer period in Shanghai, with typical highs around 24–25°C and frequent humidity and showers; comparable climate data put average May highs in the low to mid-20s Celsius, which makes any settlement materially above 30°C unusual but not impossible.

For framing, the relevant historical question is not whether Shanghai can get hot in May, but how often the airport sees a proper early-summer spike. Seasonal averages from weather archives show a broad band rather than a tight range, and recent daily records can sit well above the norm when a warm air mass builds over eastern China. In practice, markets like this are usually driven by the day’s observed conditions more than by long-range averages, so the crowd’s 0% yes implies the prevailing expectation is for a standard late-spring maximum rather than an extreme reading.

The key catalyst is the actual airport observation cycle, not any political or campaign event: traders should watch the final Wunderground historical entry for Shanghai Pudong International Airport as the day closes, together with any late-afternoon warming, cloud break-up, or rainfall that could shift the peak temperature by a degree or two. Shanghai forecasts from major weather services typically show modest day-to-day variability at this time of year, so the market is leaning on whether the day develops into an ordinary 24–28°C afternoon or a stronger warm surge.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 22? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.