Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on 20 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures.

Shenzhen's August climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 32–34°C. The city's subtropical monsoon pattern means late August temperatures rarely deviate significantly from this range, though occasional heat waves can push readings above 35°C. Weather Underground data from previous Augusts at Bao'an station shows that extreme outliers—temperatures exceeding 36°C—occur in roughly 15–20% of years, usually during particularly intense high-pressure systems. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting specific temperature-range options or treating the market as incomplete pending clarification on which range brackets the settlement.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during early-to-mid August 2026, as storm systems can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover or, conversely, drive heat and humidity upward depending on their proximity and timing. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues seasonal forecasts by late July. Any significant deviation from Shenzhen's normal August pattern would require unusual atmospheric conditions—either an anomalous cold front or an exceptionally strong high-pressure dome. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 20 August, allowing only morning observations to count, which may constrain the recorded maximum depending on when peak heating occurs that day.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 20? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

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It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.