Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen will experience peak temperatures on 25 May 2026, with the highest reading at Bao'an International Airport Station determining the resolution outcome. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle for that date. Historical records from Wunderground provide the definitive measurement source, eliminating ambiguity around station selection or methodology.

May temperatures in Shenzhen typically range between 28–35°C, reflecting the city's subtropical climate during late spring. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a placeholder pending seasonal forecasting data. Comparable May days at Bao'an show consistent patterns: highs rarely exceed 36°C in this month, though humidity levels peak sharply. The current probability distribution likely reflects insufficient trading activity rather than genuine conviction about temperature outcomes.

Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts released in the weeks preceding 25 May, particularly those from the China Meteorological Administration and international weather services. Tropical systems or unusual pressure patterns developing in the South China Sea during May could shift temperature expectations materially. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's historical archive accuracy; any discrepancies between recorded readings and official Chinese weather data would require careful verification. Real-time weather tracking from mid-May onwards will provide the most actionable signals for positioning.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 25? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.