Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 26?

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Market context

Shenzhen's weather on 26 May 2026 will be measured against historical temperature records from Bao'an International Airport, the city's primary meteorological observation point. The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature recorded across all daylight and evening hours on that date, converted to Celsius and matched to the market's predefined ranges.

Late May falls within Shenzhen's transition into summer, when daily highs typically range between 28°C and 32°C. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows that temperatures exceeding 35°C at Bao'an in May occur in roughly 5–10% of years, usually during heat waves driven by subtropical high-pressure systems moving northward from the South China Sea. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the temperature will fall within lower ranges, though this reflects uncertainty rather than certainty given the inherent variability of late-spring weather patterns in the region.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts released in early May 2026, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and international models tracking subtropical pressure systems. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 could influence whether anomalous heat develops across southern China during this period. Wunderground's historical records will be the definitive source once the date passes, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC on 26 May following finalisation of the day's temperature data from the airport station.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 26? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

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