Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25?

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Market context

Singapore's climate during late May sits firmly within the southwest monsoon season, characterised by high humidity, afternoon thunderstorms, and consistently warm daytime temperatures. The settlement window closes at midday on 25 May 2026, meaning the market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Changi Airport Station from midnight through noon that day. Historical data from Wunderground shows that May temperatures at Changi typically peak between 32–34°C, with occasional readings reaching 35°C during particularly intense heat events.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the market mechanics or awaiting clarity on the specific temperature thresholds available for resolution. May represents a transitional period in Singapore's weather calendar, sitting between the dry northeast monsoon and the wetter southwest phase. Comparable May days from the past decade show that temperatures rarely exceed 35°C before midday, though this depends heavily on cloud cover and rainfall timing. The settlement source—Wunderground's historical data for Changi—is publicly accessible and updates daily, removing ambiguity around measurement location or methodology.

Traders should monitor tropical weather forecasts released in the week preceding 25 May 2026, particularly any alerts from Singapore's Meteorological Service regarding unusual heat or monsoon intensity shifts. Changi Airport's weather station maintains consistent measurement standards, so historical May patterns provide reliable guidance for probability calibration. The noon cutoff is material: afternoon thunderstorms typically cool temperatures, meaning morning conditions will largely determine the day's maximum.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.