Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26?

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Market context

Singapore's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily temperature patterns, with May representing the transition into the southwest monsoon season. Historical data from Changi Airport, the official meteorological station, shows May daily highs typically range between 32°C and 34°C, with occasional peaks reaching 35°C during particularly intense heat events. The settlement window closes at midday on 26 May 2026, capturing the morning and early afternoon conditions when temperatures reach their daily maximum.

The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current inability to distinguish between temperature bands rather than genuine uncertainty about whether measurable heat will occur. Traders should monitor the Indian Ocean Dipole index and monsoon forecasts released by the Meteorological Department of Singapore in the weeks preceding the resolution date, as these drive seasonal temperature variations. Recent patterns from May 2024 and 2025 provide the most relevant comparable data; both years recorded highs between 33°C and 34°C at Changi. Any significant deviation would require unusual atmospheric conditions—either an unexpected cold surge from monsoon activity or an anomalous heat dome—neither of which current seasonal outlooks suggest as probable for this period.

The market's structure requires traders to select specific temperature ranges rather than simply predicting "hot" or "cold," which explains the dispersed probability distribution across multiple outcomes. Wunderground's historical records provide the definitive settlement source, with data typically finalised within 24 hours of the observation period.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.