Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s temperature is being measured against a late-summer climatology that is usually warm enough for the top bracket to be live if the day runs hot. JMA and third-party climate tables both show August highs in Tokyo commonly in the low 30s Celsius, while historical daily maxima for 10 August have reached the mid-30s in several recent years, including 35.2°C in 2020 and 36.8°C in 2021 on a comparable Tokyo record set compiled by Infoclimat.[3][13] Weather Underground’s Tokyo history page also shows a typical August high around 91°F, with a record high of 100°F, which keeps the upper temperature bands relevant whenever conditions are clear and humid.[4]

The current 0% crowd price is therefore best read as a thin-liquidity opening rather than a strong temperature signal, because the market resolves from the highest value in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, not the summary Day High & Low figure.[4] For traders, the key catalyst is the intraday observation sequence at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station up to the settlement window close, with the decisive number likely to come from the warmest afternoon reading rather than the morning baseline. The most useful cross-checks are the live Weather Underground history feed and any corroborating local or national weather updates on the day, since the final print depends on the station-level daily table rather than headline forecasts.[4][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 10? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.