Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 11 August 2026, with settlement determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are not currently backing any specific temperature range, indicating either uncertainty about which bracket will prove correct or insufficient liquidity across the available options.

Tokyo's August temperatures have historically clustered in a narrow band. Over the past decade, daily highs in mid-August have ranged between 32°C and 36°C, with 34–35°C representing the modal outcome. The city experiences consistent summer heat during this period, driven by the Pacific high-pressure system and urban heat island effects. August 11 falls within the peak summer season but before the occasional late-summer cooling patterns that emerge in late August, making extreme outliers (below 30°C or above 38°C) statistically unlikely based on recent climatological records.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in the days preceding 11 August 2026, as these will provide the most granular guidance on atmospheric conditions. Typhoon activity represents the primary wildcard catalyst; a tropical system tracking near the archipelago could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst a stalled high-pressure ridge could drive readings toward the upper end of the historical range. Weather Underground's data feed from Haneda—Japan's primary international airport with consistent instrumental records—will be the definitive source, making real-time access to that platform essential for settlement verification.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.