Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 20 August 2026, with settlement determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are not currently positioning for any particular temperature range, indicating either insufficient liquidity or consensus that the event lies too far in the future for meaningful forecasting.

Tokyo's August temperatures show consistent patterns across decades of meteorological records. The city typically experiences highs between 32–35°C during mid-August, with extreme heat events pushing toward 37–38°C occurring roughly once per decade. The Japan Meteorological Agency's historical data from Haneda Airport demonstrates that temperatures above 36°C on 20 August specifically occur in approximately 15–20% of years, whilst readings below 30°C are exceptionally rare, occurring fewer than 5% of the time. These distributions provide the baseline against which traders should calibrate their range selections.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal climate forecasts released by the Japan Meteorological Agency in July 2026, which typically provide probabilistic guidance on whether the coming month will experience above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal temperatures. El Niño and La Niña conditions in the Pacific will influence broader regional temperature patterns. The specific resolution mechanism—reliance on Haneda Airport's Daily Observations table rather than summary highs—requires familiarity with Weather Underground's data reporting practices, as discrepancies between observation-level and summary data occasionally occur and could affect settlement interpretation.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 20? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.