Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 23 May 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, requiring final temperature readings to be confirmed by the weather service before resolution occurs.

Tokyo's late May temperatures typically range between 24–28°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 30°C during early heat waves. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that May 23 specifically has recorded highs between 22–29°C over the past two decades, with the most common range clustering around 25–27°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a calibration exercise given the extended timeframe to May 2026.

Traders monitoring this market should track Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks released in April 2026, which typically provide 30-day temperature trend guidance. Pacific high-pressure systems and early monsoon activity patterns—both observable in April forecasts—will determine whether late May experiences typical conditions or anomalous warmth. Wunderground's historical data portal will be the sole arbiter, making the specific station's measurement methodology relevant; Haneda Airport readings can differ slightly from central Tokyo observations due to maritime influence and urban heat island effects.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 23? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.