Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 25?

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Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. Late May in Tokyo typically falls within the pre-monsoon transition period, with daytime highs ranging between 24–28°C depending on weather systems moving across the region. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact range boundaries or awaiting clarification on which temperature bands the market offers.

Historical May temperatures at Haneda provide the baseline for calibration. Over the past two decades, 25 May has recorded highs between 22–29°C, with an average around 25–26°C. Anomalously warm days (29°C+) occur roughly once every five years during this period, typically driven by early heat waves or high-pressure systems moving northward from the Pacific. Conversely, cooler readings (under 22°C) align with lingering spring weather or cloud cover from approaching frontal systems. The flat crowd probability reflects genuine difficulty in predicting a single day's temperature without knowing the specific temperature bands offered by the market.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in the week preceding 25 May, which will clarify whether high-pressure systems or low-pressure troughs are positioned over the Kanto region. El Niño or La Niña conditions in early 2026 may influence seasonal temperature patterns, though their predictive power for a single day remains limited. Haneda's urban heat-island effect and proximity to Tokyo Bay can elevate readings 1–2°C above surrounding rural areas, a factor worth considering when evaluating range boundaries.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 25? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.