Highest temperature in Toronto on May 25?

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Market context

Toronto's weather on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Pearson International Airport, with the settlement contingent on the highest temperature reading that day in Celsius. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or an expectation that historical data will resolve the outcome mechanically once the date passes.

May temperatures at Toronto Pearson typically range from 18°C to 24°C, based on thirty-year climate normals published by Environment and Climate Change Canada. The historical record for 25 May specifically shows a high of 29.4°C set in 1962, though daily maxima in the 20–23°C band occur most frequently. Spring weather variability in southern Ontario means outcomes spanning 15°C to 28°C remain plausible, yet the crowd has assigned negligible probability to any outcome, indicating the market may lack sufficient liquidity or trader conviction to establish meaningful odds.

Resolution depends entirely on Wunderground's historical weather database for Toronto Pearson on the settlement date. Traders should monitor whether the platform's data becomes available by the 12:00 UTC deadline on 25 May 2026. No forecasts or announcements will alter the outcome—only the actual recorded temperature at the airport station determines which range resolves YES. The 0% probability across all ranges suggests this market may see activity only after the event occurs, when traders can verify the recorded high and settle positions accordingly.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Toronto on May 25? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.