Highest temperature in Wellington on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington's highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at the airport station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, which serves as the primary source over summary figures. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any temperature range, suggesting either early-stage pricing or uncertainty about typical August conditions in the capital.

August is Wellington's coldest month, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 11–13°C at the airport station. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects conservative positioning ahead of winter, though actual temperatures can vary considerably depending on frontal systems and wind patterns. Comparable August days over the past decade show occasional highs reaching 15–16°C during anticyclonic conditions, whilst southerly outbreaks can suppress readings below 10°C. The settlement window closes at midday on 11 August 2026, meaning only observations recorded before that point will count towards resolution.

Traders should monitor MetService forecasts and Weather Underground's own predictions as August 2026 approaches, as these will provide the most reliable guidance on atmospheric patterns likely to influence the airport station's readings. The specificity of using Daily Observations rather than summary high-low figures is material; discrepancies between the two sources have occasionally occurred, making direct reference to Wunderground's detailed observation logs essential for accurate settlement. No scheduled weather events or climate anomalies are currently anticipated for that date.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Wellington on August 11? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.