Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at the city's international airport weather station and resolved against historical data from Weather Underground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must assess seasonal patterns and any anomalous weather systems forecast to affect the region during late autumn in the Southern Hemisphere.

Wellington's May temperatures typically range between 8 and 14 degrees Celsius, with historical maxima rarely exceeding 16 degrees on this date. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the temperature will fall within a lower range than the market's highest available bracket. May represents transition into winter for New Zealand, with cold fronts and southerly winds becoming more frequent; however, occasional warm northerly flows can push temperatures several degrees above the seasonal median. The airport station's exposure on the coast means sea-surface temperatures and maritime air masses significantly influence daily highs.

Traders should monitor the Southern Oscillation Index and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Tasman Sea during April and early May 2026, as these drive larger-scale atmospheric patterns affecting New Zealand. The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) publishes monthly climate outlooks that typically become available three to four weeks before the target month. Any La Niña or La Niña-like conditions developing through autumn could suppress temperatures, whilst neutral or warm-phase conditions might support above-median maxima. Real-time forecast models from the MetService become reliable only within ten days of 25 May.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.