Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan’s heat in August is usually intense, and that matters because this market settles on the single highest reading at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, not the broader “day high” summary. Long-run climate pages put August average highs around 33–35°C, with record highs in the low 40s, so the plausible resolution band is already very warm even before considering any late-summer spike.[1][3][5][11]

That historical backdrop explains why the current **0% YES** crowd read is not especially informative on its own: in weather markets, the outcome is driven by the exact station report and a one-day extreme, not the monthly average. Comparable August data for Wuhan show repeated highs in the mid-to-high 30s and occasional surges to 40°C or above, which is the right frame for judging whether the final observation lands in a lower bracket or pushes into the top temperature range.[2][3][7][15]

The main catalyst is the late-summer heat pattern rather than any scheduled event, so traders should watch the forecast trend for Wuhan Tianhe Airport and whether conditions on 10 August support a peak around early afternoon, when the day’s maximum is most likely to be set. The market’s resolution source is Weather Underground’s daily observations for the airport station, and that source takes priority over any summary display if the two diverge, so a trader will be leaning on the station log rather than headline app figures.[9][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.