Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, Wuhan will experience peak summer heat, with the highest temperature recorded at Tianhe International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting traders have not yet engaged with this weather-specific contract or are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts.

Wuhan's August temperatures historically cluster in the 32–38°C range, with extreme heat events occasionally pushing above 40°C. The city's location in the Yangtze River valley and subtropical climate create consistent high-temperature patterns during mid-summer. Reviewing Weather Underground's Daily Observations data from previous August periods at the airport station provides the most reliable baseline for assessing plausible ranges. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the contract's distance from the settlement date and the absence of near-term weather models that could anchor trader expectations.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts released by China's National Meteorological Centre in the months preceding August 2026, particularly any advisories regarding heat waves or anomalous atmospheric conditions. The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than the Day High & Low summary—requires familiarity with that platform's specific data recording practices at the Wuhan airport station. Any significant climate pattern shifts or El Niño/La Niña developments affecting East Asian summer temperatures would merit attention, though such forecasts typically gain clarity only 3–6 months before the event.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

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Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

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Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.