Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s official minimum temperature for 11 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily extract, so the live debate is whether overnight conditions produce a low in the upper 20s or hold closer to the climatological norm. The market is effectively leaning on the Observatory’s published morning readings and eventual “Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)” value, with the key practical question being whether cloud, showers and humidity prevent any meaningful nocturnal cooling.[10][18]

That 0% crowd-implied YES is easiest to read against Hong Kong’s August baseline, where the Observatory’s 1991–2020 normals put 11 August at a mean minimum of 26.7°C.[2] Comparable August summaries from weather services likewise cluster around overnight lows in the high 20s Celsius, with average lows near 27°C and only limited deviation from that band.[3][11] Recent market commentary has also pointed to a persistently warm pattern, with traders focusing on the possibility of 28–30°C minima rather than a cooler outlier.[8]

The main catalysts are the next Observatory updates: any morning hourly readings, the day’s evolving rainfall and cloud cover, and the final posted daily extract after the date closes.[6][10] Timeanddate’s forecast for Hong Kong on 11 August called for showers early and mostly cloudy conditions, which would tend to keep minima elevated rather than allow a sharp pre-dawn dip.[9] If the forecast verifies, the market remains anchored to a warm overnight setup; if convective rain arrives earlier or lingers longer, that is the most plausible route to a lower final minimum.[9][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

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High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

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