Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24?

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Market context

Tokyo's lowest temperature on 24 May 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The current 8% probability reflects expectation of a relatively mild late-spring day, consistent with typical May conditions in the Tokyo region where minimum temperatures generally range between 15–20°C during this period.

Historical May records for Tokyo show that temperatures below 10°C are uncommon but not unprecedented. The Japan Meteorological Agency's thirty-year climate normals indicate that the fifth percentile for minimum temperatures in late May sits around 12–13°C, suggesting the market's low probability for extreme cold is grounded in seasonal norms. Anomalously cold May days in Tokyo occur roughly once per decade, typically driven by cold air masses from the north or unusual weather patterns. The 8% implied probability aligns with this frequency distribution.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models (GFS, ECMWF) as May 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of unseasonable cold patterns or northerly wind shifts in late April. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 could influence large-scale atmospheric circulation and increase or decrease the likelihood of cooler-than-normal temperatures. Resolution depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data pull from Haneda Airport Station, making forecast accuracy in the final week before settlement the primary variable traders can assess.

Methodology

This page tracks Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.