Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or an expectation that the settlement window closure on 12 August at noon UTC will prevent resolution before peak daily temperatures are typically recorded in Beijing (usually between 14:00 and 16:00 local time).

Historical August temperatures in Beijing reveal a consistent pattern: daily highs typically range between 26°C and 32°C, with extreme heat occasionally pushing above 35°C. The 30-year climate average for early August sits around 29°C, though the city has experienced temperatures exceeding 40°C during heatwaves in recent decades. August 2023 saw several days above 35°C, whilst August 2022 remained closer to seasonal norms. This historical range provides the baseline against which traders should calibrate their position, as the settlement methodology's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than summary figures—introduces a specificity requirement that may affect how edge cases resolve.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the days preceding 12 August 2026, as these typically provide the most reliable 10-day outlooks for Beijing conditions. The settlement window's noon UTC closure creates a practical constraint: Beijing operates on China Standard Time (UTC+8), meaning the market closes at 20:00 local time on 12 August, well after the day's temperature peak. Any significant weather system or heatwave warning issued by Chinese authorities in early August would shift probability distributions materially.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.