Highest temperature in Busan on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport Station in Busan on 18 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures.

Busan's August temperatures have historically clustered in the 28–32°C range for daily highs, with extreme heat events pushing above 33°C occurring roughly once per decade during the summer months. The city's coastal location moderates temperatures compared to inland Korean regions, though the Yellow Sea's warm waters in mid-August can sustain elevated readings. Historical records from the Korea Meteorological Administration show that temperatures exceeding 35°C in Busan remain uncommon but not unprecedented; the 2018 heat wave saw several days above 34°C. Current crowd probability at 0% suggests traders are pricing in expectations well below historical extremes for that date.

The resolution hinges entirely on Weather Underground's recorded data from Gimhae station, making data availability and measurement consistency the primary operational risk. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during mid-August could introduce volatility; the 2023 typhoon season saw multiple systems affect Korean temperatures in this window. Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models (ECMWF, GFS) as August 2026 approaches, particularly any advisories regarding heat domes or typhoon systems that might alter typical seasonal patterns for that specific date.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Busan on August 18? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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