Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 20 August 2026, with settlement based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside the upper ranges being offered, or that insufficient liquidity exists to establish meaningful odds across the available brackets.

Chengdu's August climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 28–35°C during the month. The city sits in a basin with limited air circulation, intensifying heat retention. Examining August records from the past decade reveals that temperatures exceeding 36°C occur in roughly 15–20% of years, whilst readings above 38°C remain rare. The specific resolution source—Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station data—provides a standardised measurement point, though airport readings can differ marginally from urban centre observations depending on local surface conditions and measurement protocols.

Traders should monitor weather forecasting updates from late July onwards, as seasonal patterns and any anomalous atmospheric conditions will become clearer as August approaches. The China Meteorological Administration issues monthly outlooks that may indicate whether 2026 is tracking towards above-average or below-average temperatures for the region. Any significant weather systems affecting central China in the weeks preceding 20 August—such as monsoon activity or high-pressure systems—could shift expectations materially. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, requiring traders to account for time-zone conversion when interpreting final readings.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 20? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.