Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong will record its highest temperature on 12 August 2026, with the Hong Kong Observatory's official measurement determining which temperature band the market resolves to. The settlement window closes at midday on that date, though final data publication may extend beyond the immediate observation period.

August temperatures in Hong Kong typically peak between 32°C and 34°C, with historical records showing the territory rarely exceeds 36°C on any single day during summer months. The Observatory's daily maximum readings from previous Augusts provide the baseline: 2025 saw a peak of 33.9°C on 13 August, whilst 2024 recorded 34.5°C on 19 August. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarity on the specific temperature bands available for resolution or treating this as a straightforward weather forecast dependent on meteorological conditions rather than discrete events.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone warnings issued in early August 2026, as these significantly influence daily maximum temperatures. Typhoon activity or unusual pressure systems could push readings toward the upper range, whilst typical monsoon patterns would anchor outcomes toward the 32–34°C band. The Observatory publishes preliminary daily data within hours of observation, though the "Daily Extract" used for final settlement may require several days of verification. Humidity levels and cloud cover during the afternoon peak—typically between 2pm and 4pm—will be the operative factors determining the exact recorded maximum.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.