Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s temperature outcome hinges on the daytime peak at Haneda on 5 August, and the market is leaning on a very warm late-summer baseline rather than on any one-off weather shock. Tokyo’s August climatology is typically hot and humid, with average highs around 31°C to 31.5°C, while AccuWeather’s August 2026 outlook has daily highs in the low-to-high 30s °C and timeanddate’s hourly Tokyo forecast already showing an 88°F reading around midday[1][2][16][17]. That makes a sub-30°C maximum at Haneda look unusual absent persistent rain or an early weakening of the heat.

The historical frame is straightforward: in Tokyo, August frequently produces highs in the low 30s °C, and Tokyo tourism guidance notes that daytime temperatures often exceed 33.6°C, with rain and typhoons the main moderating risks[17]. Japanese Meteorological Agency data for Tokyo this month also shows maxima well into the mid-30s °C on recent days, including 36.5°C on 1 August and 35.3°C on 2 August at Tokyo’s main station, which reinforces how far the current crowd-implied 0% YES sits below the seasonal norm[9]. For a “highest temperature” market tied to Haneda, the key read is not the current hour-by-hour temperature but whether afternoon cloud, showers, or coastal breeze cap the day’s final maximum below the next threshold band.

Traders should watch the afternoon Tokyo forecast updates, any rainfall or thunderstorm warnings, and whether a tropical system or rain band tracks into the Kanto region before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. At the moment, the practical catalyst is the intraday weather evolution rather than any scheduled announcement, with the market likely to move most if forecasts shift from hot and dry to damp and overcast. The clearest reference point is the current forecast stack from AccuWeather and timeanddate, which both imply heat is still in place through the day[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.