Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s main driver on 6 August is the day’s top reading at Haneda, which typically settles in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius in early August rather than the upper 30s. The current crowd price of 0% for **YES** implies traders are not assigning weight to an extreme outcome, and that fits the broader August climatology for Tokyo, where average highs are around 31°C and humid conditions are common.[2][10]

Recent reference points suggest the market should be read as a bracket trade around the local afternoon peak rather than a binary hot/cool call. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s August daily data show Tokyo-area highs already running from the low 30s into the mid-30s, with inland wards often hotter than the airport station, while a separate resolved market on 1 August settled at 35°C in Tokyo, underscoring that high-30s readings are possible but not routine.[1][18][19]

For traders, the key catalyst is whether the day develops into a clean clear-sky heat build-up or stays capped by cloud, sea breeze, or showers over Haneda’s coastal site. AccuWeather’s outlook for Tokyo around this date keeps highs clustered near 32–34°C, which points to a fairly narrow distribution unless a late-day surge pushes the maximum up another degree or two.[2] The market is therefore leaning on the same dependency as any Tokyo summer temperature event: morning conditions, afternoon sunshine, and whether the coastal airport station runs a little cooler than central Tokyo.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.