Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is in the middle of an exceptionally hot spell, with the Observatory saying the city set a new all-time high of 36.9C on 9 August as warm air was drawn over the territory.[18][20] That matters for this market because the settlement hinges on the **lowest** temperature the Hong Kong Observatory records at its main station on 10 August, not the daytime peak; the current crowd-implied 0% for a YES outcome looks heavily anchored to the idea that a severe heat event leaves little room for an unusually cool minimum.[1][18]

The historical frame points the other way on how to read extremes: Hong Kong’s August climate is normally very warm, with an average minimum around 27.7C and a 10 August mean minimum of 27.0C in the Observatory’s normals, so a low single-digit or teens outcome would be extraordinary rather than routine.[2][6][17] Recent August weather summaries also show that even during unsettled spells, the Observatory’s monthly mean minimum stays in the high 20s, which makes any sharp overnight cooling dependent on a specific weather change rather than the seasonal baseline.[7][14]

For traders, the main catalyst is whether the hot, stagnant air mass persists into the overnight and early-morning hours before the 12:00 UTC cut-off, or whether showers, cloud cover, or a wind shift trim the pre-dawn minimum. The key dependency is the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Daily Extract” for 10 August, which is the resolution source and will only be available after the date’s data are published.[1] Given the headline heat record and the lack of any separate political or campaign-style catalyst in this market, the weather pattern itself is the sole driver to watch.[18][20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

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