Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol’s hottest reading on 30 July will be the settlement driver here, so the market is really about whether the afternoon can lift beyond the low- to mid-20s Celsius now dominating the board. Polymarket’s live pricing has the leading outcomes clustered at **25°C** and **26°C**, both on 21%, with **27°C** next at 21% and **23°C** at 19%, which suggests traders are leaning towards a warm but not exceptional day rather than a sharp heat spike.[1]

That framing fits the broader July climatology for Amsterdam, where average highs are around the low-20s Celsius and the month’s typical maximum sits well below the national heat-event threshold. Historical records show that Amsterdam can do much hotter: sources compiling local climate data list record July highs in the mid-30s Celsius, including 35.8°C on 1 July 2025 and 36.4°C on 26 July 2019, so a top-end outcome is possible in principle even if it is not the base case.[6][10]

For traders, the main catalyst is the day’s actual temperature trajectory at Schiphol, especially whether sunshine and a late-afternoon warm-up push the peak into the 27°C-plus bands before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. The market is not leaning on a debate or political release, but on weather guidance and the airport station’s reported maximum; recent Amsterdam monthly forecasts from AccuWeather have shown highs in the low- to mid-20s Celsius around this period, which is consistent with the current distribution.[3][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 30? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.