Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for the full diurnal cycle up to the measurement cutoff.

August in Beijing typically sees peak temperatures between 29–35°C, with occasional spikes above 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that extreme heat events—those exceeding 38°C—occur in roughly one in five Augusts, whilst temperatures below 28°C are rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool spell or scepticism about the highest temperature bands offered in the market's resolution brackets. Comparable August days at the airport station have produced readings ranging from 25°C on cooler years to 40°C during severe heat episodes, establishing a wide historical envelope.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts and any issued heat warnings from the China Meteorological Administration in the weeks preceding 11 August 2026. Atmospheric patterns affecting North China Plain temperatures—including monsoon activity, high-pressure systems, and potential typhoon remnants—typically become clearer 10–14 days in advance. The specific reliance on the airport station's Daily Observations table rather than city-centre readings or summary data means that microclimatic factors at that location will determine settlement, making localised weather station data more relevant than broader Beijing forecasts.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.