Highest temperature in Busan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s midday heat on 10 August is likely to be governed by the same late-summer pattern that usually keeps August as the city’s warmest month, with average highs around 26.8–29°C and typical daily highs near 87°F/31°C in climate datasets. Historical Busan August records show that temperatures can still spike well into the mid-30s Celsius, with one August 10 record listed at 34.6°C, so a market around the low-30s is being framed against a genuinely hot baseline rather than a cool-season norm.[5][8][6]

The current 0% YES implies traders see virtually no path to an extreme upside outcome, and the main catalyst is the live forecast for Gimhae/Busan rather than any political-style polling movement. The most relevant near-term signal is the official hourly observation trail on Weather Underground, because this market settles off the highest value in the Daily Observations table, not the summary high/low. Recent forecast material points to a much milder cap than the historical record, with a Busan forecast around 28–31°C, a chance of thunderstorms early, and a brightening, breezy afternoon, which would favour the lower temperature bands unless convective heating briefly pushes the station reading higher.[3][11][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Busan on August 10? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.