Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s heat at the airport station is the real-world driver here, and the market is currently pricing a very low chance of an extreme reading despite August being one of the city’s hottest months. Weather Underground’s live history page shows 79°F at 9:00 AM, with the day’s high and the daily observations table aligned at that level so far; the settlement source is the **Daily Observations** table, not the summary high/low strip.[1]

For context, Chengdu in August usually sits around the low 30s Celsius for daytime highs, with long-run averages near 30–31°C and occasional spikes well above that in heatwave years.[3][12][13] Comparable August readings in historical weather summaries often cluster in the high 20s to mid-30s Celsius, which makes a 0% implied YES price look like a market leaning strongly away from a top-end temperature band unless the day turns much hotter later on.[4][7][9]

The main catalyst is the intraday temperature path at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, especially any midday heating, cloud break-up, or rain that changes the peak before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Traders should watch the Weather Underground history page for updates, since the market resolves off that table and not any separate forecast or summary display; at present, nearby forecast sources still point to a hot, cloudy August day rather than an obvious extreme.[1][20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 9? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

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