Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 August 2026, Chongqing will record its daily maximum temperature, measured at Jiangbei International Airport Station and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently implies zero probability of any outcome occurring, suggesting either incomplete market pricing or uncertainty about which temperature band will materialise on that specific date.

Chongqing's August climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 32°C and 37°C during mid-August. The city sits in a basin surrounded by hills, which traps heat and contributes to its reputation as one of China's "three furnaces" alongside Wuhan and Nanjing. August temperatures have occasionally exceeded 40°C in recent decades, though such extremes remain relatively uncommon. Examining Weather Underground's historical records for Chongqing Jiangbei station across previous Augusts provides the most reliable baseline for assessing which temperature ranges are plausible.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly those from the China Meteorological Administration and international models, as these will indicate whether atmospheric conditions favour above-average or below-average temperatures for that week. El Niño or La Niña patterns active during mid-2026 could influence regional temperature anomalies. The resolution depends entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, so traders should verify the exact measurement methodology used at Jiangbei station to avoid discrepancies between different temperature reporting sources.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.