Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 7 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to any specific temperature range. This event hinges on a single day’s peak heat in one of China’s most humid and thermally active cities during its hottest month.

Historically, July in Guangzhou sees daily highs averaging around 33°C (91°F), rarely dipping below 29°C (85°F) or exceeding 36°C (96°F), with the highest recorded average occurring on 25 July [2]. Recent data confirms this summer has been the hottest since 1961, with July averaging 23.2°C and heatwaves widespread across southern China [3][6]. In a comparable market on 3 July, traders estimated a 27.5% chance of exactly 34°C, which ultimately resolved as YES [1], suggesting that even modest deviations from the mean can shift probabilities significantly.

Traders should monitor official weather bulletins from the China Meteorological Administration and real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source [5]. No scheduled political debates or campaign-finance disclosures are expected to influence this outcome; the market leans entirely on meteorological data. A sudden thunderstorm or prolonged heat dome could alter the peak temperature, making daily forecasts from PredictWind and Climate Data critical for tracking emerging trends [4][7]. The absence of crowd interest likely reflects uncertainty rather than a clear signal, given Guangzhou’s volatile July climate.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 7? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.