Highest temperature in London on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

London is tracking a warm late-June day, with London City Airport already reporting about 22°C and nearby forecasts pointing to a daytime high close to 30°C. That puts the market in the zone where a 27°C or 28°C reading is plausible, but the current 0% YES price suggests traders are still treating the settlement threshold as effectively unfilled rather than pricing in a specific outcome.

The historical frame is straightforward: London’s late-June temperatures can swing from merely mild to distinctly hot, and airport-based highs around 28–30°C are not exceptional in settled summer spells. BBC Weather currently has London City Airport at 28° for Monday 22nd June, while the Met Office is also indicating a maximum of 30°C for the location across Monday 22 June to Friday, which is the sort of forecast pattern that usually supports a higher-end temperature bin if the afternoon remains sunny and the wind stays light.[3][5]

The key catalyst is the intraday forecast-to-observation path at London City Airport, not a political calendar-style trigger. Traders will be leaning on whether the official airport observations keep rising through the afternoon and whether the day’s peak lands in the upper 20s before the Wunderground daily record closes; Wunderground notes the market cannot resolve until the next day’s first data point is published, so late updates matter.[1] The main dependency is simple: if cloud breaks and the airport gets a stronger southerly or easterly warm-up, the higher bins become more credible; if marine cloud lingers, the peak may sit nearer the mid-20s despite the warmer forecast backdrop.[3][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in London on June 22? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.